Sunday 9 March 2014

Golden Triangle

As a result of my recent activity I have closed the bulk of my short term positions with the exception of all those mining shares I picked up around the 12th February. The return (2.8% in three and a half weeks) has not been as good as my China shares (3.6% profit now realised) and Misc (23.8% profit mostly realised). Nevertheless the returns on those mining shares are great - equivalent to 41% pa. My reason for holding on is the renewed bullishness of the gold market - the bulk of those mining shares are in gold.



Not all is smooth sailing. Gold has spent the past five days failing to penetrate a horizontal resistance line in place since April last year. The support line that began on 31st December is still strong but I must be aware that a return to the low is still possible. Weakness in gold could be the signal for me to withdraw from the market for the summer.



As for the main markets. They continue on their upward push. Just the other day the general news noted that a new all time high been reached. That news has yet to hit the headlines. When it does you can be reasonably confident that the bull run has come to an end.

In the mean time I regret my decision to exit the market on news from the Crimea. It does not look as though it will become a shooting war but I still believe that the Ukraine will fall back into the Russian sphere of influence with minimal Western protests.


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