Wednesday, 25 April 2012
Wednesday, 18 April 2012
Today is decision day and its going to be hard. But the first rule of investing is that you must, above all, protect your capital. If you fail to do that you have no chance of re-entering the game. Take your losses and wait for better times.
Sunday, 15 April 2012
Thursday, 12 April 2012
I indicated in my last post that I am now bearish about the market so the only way to go is short. I bought short positions on the US and UK markets yesterday through SUK2 and DXD exchange traded funds. I turns out that I went in too early for the market continued its retracement today. I'm holding on and planning to buy more when the up-tick has come to an end. 13000 is the strongest resistance point and it also represents the half way point of the downward move.
Not much more to say. I wait to see if I am right.
Tuesday, 10 April 2012
My performance last year was disastrous. Almost half my losses were chalked up during the last three weeks. I was too slow to cut my losses. I was holding a portfolio that was far too risky to be left without proper supervision and I lacked full access to data which would have warned me that a major shift was taking place in the market. Too late now to grieve, I just have to work hard to make up the losses.
A quick look at today's chart shows what has happened and also what I should have done if I'd had been able to see events unfolding more clearly:
- the support line, respected by the market since October was broken on the 6th March
- it looked like a false break down because the market recovered within a week
- support was broken again on the 20th
- this followed a sharp spike in volume on 16th, the day of a new high
So where are we now? Yesterday the Dow closed bellow the critical 13000 level and faces a couple of previous resistance levels which are now potential support levels. I do not hold out much hope for a happy outcome. Share prices have been riding high and we are approaching the summer which is rarely a good time for the market. I enter this period with almost 90% cash and so I am now protected from danger and will be well placed to take advantage of any rises. For me the best outcome would be a sharp market fall which would mean that bargains would reappear.
Precious metals and commodities have done no better than shares. I have no precious metals but still have my cattle holdings which are not doing well. My other holdings are tiny.