Tuesday 15 May 2012

Thanks for your comments

Two posts in one day, that's a first. I was inspired by George who left a comment. Thanks for that, and thanks too for other comments.  There are so many ways to look at the market and if you don't look for alternative ways of interpreting what is happening you get nowhere. I personally am not convinced that there is a cabal manipulating the market. I make a deliberate effort not to listen or read market commentaries in newspapers because they sensationalise everything. Their priority is selling their rags. They also have a way of being knowledgeable but only after the event. I try to look forward.

Back to the cabal that George suspects is running the show. I do think the market is being moved by people with far more money than sense. Governments have pumped banks full of cash. As we know, this has not been lent out to businesses. Instead it has found its way, one way or another, into asset markets especially stock markets. This has pumped up the price of shares to unreasonable levels. For me this is a disaster because I am good at finding bargains, pointless if the market as a whole is poised on the edge of a precipice. Eventually the easy money will run out and there will be a drought of buyers. Then some piece of bad news will cause a panic and sellers will suddenly appear. This will be the tipping point. All those hungry buyers will see paper losses mounting on their books and they will add fuel to a selling frenzy. The ones that bought low will be OK but the ones that came in late will have trouble repaying their debts. We just hope that the banks that lent them the money will be able to cope.

Unless there is Armageddon, those of us sitting on cash will be able to hunt for bargains again.

But going back to present problems the bulls are still out there, holding on and pushing the market back up. Yesterday's Greek story is forgotten. You're not allowed to wrap your fish and chips in yesterday's news any more. Now that really was recycling.

I appreciate David's comment from the last post too. I agree that going short is part of a good strategy, it's just that I don't do it very well. I don't buy soon enough and I am frightened out of my positions by rallies so I miss the next move down. I do it using ETFs. Do you have a better way David?

So here we are with the US market nudging the support, now resistance level. We just have to wait to see how strong those bulls out there are. My money stays, albeit hesitantly, on the short side.

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