Wednesday, 31 August 2011
I lost most of my morning while I had a new carpet fitted in my study. Result no internet so I was too late to pick up shares in the second day of bounce in the FTSE. Maybe that's a blessing in disguise, tomorrow could see the end of this rally.
Tuesday, 30 August 2011
The Dow is more of a worry. It has poked its nose above the resistance line I drew, but not enough to be a convincing break out. The bulls are pushing but the bears are still out there. Volume has declined. The picture drawn by the S&P is slightly more bullish, but nothing to write home about.
Most of my UK bottom fishing stocks (bought at the bottom of the fall continue to do well (KFX, WLF, NWR, ISAT).
The balance of my portfolio is: Gold and Silver 19%, Equities 17%, Short Index ETFs 9%, Cash 56%.
Monday, 29 August 2011
Get Low. Very unusual and moving examination of guilt.
Friday, 26 August 2011
I have bought some gold and some more silver despite my worries yesterday. I may regret this reckless move. But the silver chart looks promising (It is moving upward in clear steps - see chart) and gold has bounced off a support line.
Dramatic daily stock market movements are inflicting vicious whipsaws and perhaps I should not be there at all.
I am flush with cash that I have been holding for a couple of months. I sold off most of my shares when the market flattened and looked as though it would fall. (Tiny pat on the back.) All that cash is now burning a hole in my pocket and I want it to generate some profit. Should I be more patient in these uncertain times and return to holding close to 100% cash?
Look at the chart and you can see that the 11000 area has held up the movement in the DOW on two occasions in the past 18 months. Current price action, for all its volatility represents the third time this has happened. The only thing to do now is to watch carefully for the moment that the pause is over. The sharp rise in the volume of trades suggests that when that happens many traders will be smiling while others will be crying.
Thursday, 25 August 2011
We are in an ugly place.
The market has fallen sharply and is now consolidating. It is trading in a range with violent movements both up and down. The price action does not give the smallest hint of how it will turn out. Very, very hard to make money here. I have bet each way: small positions in short index ETFs and small positions in stocks poised to move higher if the market recovers.
Precious metals are in retreat but could easily resume their upward path. So no easy money here either. I have kept a little silver but have taken profits on the rest and on all of my gold. I have thrown in the towel on palladium.
Bonds are doing well but could also reverse. I maintain a small short ETF position.
Only solution is to bunker down and wait for some clear signals.