Thursday 1 September 2011

Bad choices

With the market still rising albeit at a reduced pace, the temptation to dive in is strong. But is this a trap ready to be sprung at the top of a rally? My picks yesterday were/are a disaster.They started fine but quickly reversed when the market turned weaker as the evening wore on. And with the exception of TSPT they continued weak today. I will leave the decision as to whether to dump till tomorrow. The natural reaction after a disaster is to sit still for a moment and that's what I'll do. Leaving the market alone may also be the right thing to do.
My portfolio has been helped by currency movements over the past few days. I hold US$, HK$ and Swiss Franc assets. All have fared well against the pound giving a modest lift to my portfolio value. The US$ and HK$ movements are cyclical but the Swiss Franc story is extraordinary (see chart). I just wish I had jumped aboard the train sooner. 

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